Why Obama shouldn"t expect much from the G20

(CNN)Behind the forced smiles and obligatory handshakes that mark what could be President Barack Obama"s final encounters with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin this Sunday at the G20 lurks one undeniably inconvenient reality: These days, more divides Russia and Turkey from the United States than unites them.

Where you stand in life and politics has everything to do with where you sit. And in September 2016, Obama, Erdogan and Putin are sitting in very different places. Indeed, chances for serious breakthroughs or strategic realignments on Syria or any other issue in these summit meetings in China this weekend are slim to none.

The situation with Putin is even worse. For the Russian leader, every US action that challenges him is somehow viewed as existential. He blames the US for the color revolutions of 2003 and 2004 in Georgia and Ukraine; and in 2011, he accused Hillary Clinton of encouraging demonstrations in Russia. Indeed, even his support for the Bashar al-Assad regime and aversion to American efforts to replace the Syrian leader are tied to Putin"s fears that the United States is eager to see unfriendly regimes, including Putin"s, changed. These suspicions explain much about Putin"s antipathy toward Obama and have long cast a pall on any real chance for serious cooperation on a range of issues.

Putin and Erdogan closer than Obama

Turkey and Russia have a long history of mutual antagonism and distrust. But Putin and Erdogan have much in common, too: They are fellow authoritarians who are wary of the United States. They both have vital interests in Syria. Russia wants to preserve its 40-year stake in Syria and not allow the Americans to dictate the terms of an endgame, and Turkey wants to prevent the Syrian Kurds from creating an autonomous area and feeding Turkish nationalism at home.

There are also strong economic reasons for cooperation, particularly since Russia is Turkey"s second-largest trading partner after Germany. The two countries also have several cooperative ventures around tourism and energy in various stages of development and/or execution.

And of late, particularly in the wake of the attempted coup, Turkey has reached out to mend ties. Putin, eager to drive a wedge between Turkey (a member of NATO) and the United States, has reciprocated. Putin also knows that Turkey"s intervention in northern Syria against US-backed Kurds has created additional tensions with Washington and perhaps opened up an opportunity for cooperation.

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Tactical alignment at best

Whatever may emerge in the way of pledges between the leaders this weekend to combat ISIS or to work to end the violence in Syria, there are real limits to cooperation, let alone grand deals. On Syria, the United States, Russia and Turkey share some common goals: Smash radical Islamists and keep Syria united, at least with respect to its borders. But Putin and Erdogan are playing the long game in Syria with goals that also involve checking American influence and crushing Kurdish nationalism, respectively -- and these goals differ fundamentally from Obama"s.

The bottom line is Putin and Erdogan will be around long after Obama leaves office. And that"s reason enough to pursue their own goals irrespective of America"s and to pay more attention to one another than to a US president in his waning days in office.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/opinions/g20-shortfall-america-russia-turkey-miller/index.html